Ukraine Chronicles #1
15.07.2019 - 21.07.2019
About "Ukraine Chronicles"
So I'm planning to make this a series where I summarise and, if possible, discuss a week's key events relating to Ukrainian politics. A weekly retrospective, essentially. For disclosure, I am far from being a political expert, so don't expect any academic value from this. I also cannot guarantee that I will be able to include all important occurrences relating to our subject. I merely plan to offer selections.
Now on to the installment
1) Olympic Games
To begin with, it appears President-elect Zelens'kyy is intent to see the Olympic Games take place in Ukraine. The President's official website reported as much. Of course, this bit of news is unsurprising, as consistent with Zelens'kyy's knack for bringing show business into politics (think of his campaign videos or the internationally-viral provocative offer to grant Ukrainian citizenship to Russians).
At the same time, it is pleasing to see the new President planning a long-term project which will likely not yield its desired result until he is gone, which seems to show that he cares about more than his own prestige and re-election (the same article notes that the Games will not come to Ukraine before 2030 or 2032).
2) Language law, Hungary, NATO
On the sixteenth, Ukraine's "language law", approved in April of this year, entered into power (https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-derzhavna-mova-zakon-chynnist/30057675.html). This was accompanied by a palette of reactions ranging from support, as embodied in a public rally and concerts in Dnipro (https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-mova-objednuje/30059006.html) to embittered opposition.
Thus, the head of Hungary's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speaking in Ukraine, stated that Hungary would cease to veto Ukrainian negotiations with NATO in the event of the language law's implications for language in education being disposed of.
Such a statement seems unlikely to be received well by Ukrainians, as the language law was co-authored by several citizen organisations as well as staff of the Kyiv and L'viv universities, thus probably enjoying a broad base of support among the population. A site poll on the Ukrainian 24th channel also found that 64% of residents were in favour of the bill.
3) Trade deficit
On a still more depressing note, Unian reported on Tuesday that Ukraine's trade deficit had risen. In Jan-May 2019, it was as high as a vertiginous $2,6 billion, up by 27,4% year-over-year. Unian notes that the deficit had skyrocketed even more dramatically from 2017 to 2018. Overall, exports from Ukraine rose, just not as fast as imports to Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine on Tuesday extended a recent ban on certain imports from Russia (cement and plywood). However, given that the measure was a reaction to a Russian import ban, I doubt it will make much of a dent in the trade deficit with Russia.
At the same time, Ukraine on Tuesday extended a recent ban on certain imports from Russia (cement and plywood). However, given that the measure was a reaction to a Russian import ban, I doubt it will make much of a dent in the trade deficit with Russia.
4) MH17
Early this week, the EU released an official statement expressing condolences towards those whose loved ones had died in the downing of MH17 exactly 5 years prior, as well as calling on Russia to accept responsibility for the event.
The document notes that "criminal charges will be brought against four individuals in the Netherlands". Presumably it is for the best that this will occur in the Netherlands of all places, especially knowing that that country's MH17 trauma may have contributed to the Dutch plebiscite result rejecting the EU's association agreement with Ukraine. It may be beneficial to demonstrate to the Dutch people who is really at fault.
A similar note was struck by Ukrainian ambassador Galibarenko when speaking in the British Parliament (https://twitter.com/UkrEmbLondon/status/1151476543912370177?s=19).
As a subterfuge with the goal to draw attention away from this issue, the Russian Federation got the UN Security Council to talk about Ukraine's law on the Ukrainian language: https://twitter.com/unian_en/status/1151125852379369472?s=19.
The Opposition Platform was quick to claim "massive falsifications" were present (even before the official results were announced). Indeed, the elections had been marked by a huge number of manipulation attempts (https://twitter.com/HromadskeRadio/status/1153247277823209472?s=19).
On the other hand, it was reassuring to note that decisive action on the authorities' part seemed to be occurring against falsification attempts. Thus, it was reported that as of 18:00 on Sunday 44 criminal procedures were going on in connection with voting irregularities.
The exit poll results soon led commentators to speculate that "Servant of the People" would coalesce with the newly-formed "Voice" party. However, it later became clear that "Servant of the People" would receive enough seats to rule without resorting to a coalition: https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1153239471317540864?s=19.
An echo of the uneven voting results of the presidential elections earlier this year was felt as former president Poroshenko's party "European Solidarity" narrowly beat "Servant of the People" in votes from abroad.
A similar note was struck by Ukrainian ambassador Galibarenko when speaking in the British Parliament (https://twitter.com/UkrEmbLondon/status/1151476543912370177?s=19).
As a subterfuge with the goal to draw attention away from this issue, the Russian Federation got the UN Security Council to talk about Ukraine's law on the Ukrainian language: https://twitter.com/unian_en/status/1151125852379369472?s=19.
5) Parliamentary elections
Sunday had Ukrainians tense as elections to the Verkhovna Rada rolled around. According to an acticle in Hromadske, the big day resulted from President Zelens'kyy's decision to disband Parliament and declare early elections on grounds of an "absence of a coalition and of trust in Parliament."
Exit polls published in the evening confirmed what recent surveys had suggested: first by a long chalk was the President's "Servant of the People" party at 43,9% of the vote, trailed by the Opposition Platform, which received 11,9%.
Regardless of what one thinks of the distribution of votes, it was concerning to note that the turnout was minuscule, being at 16:00 only 36% according to Business Ukraine Mag (https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1152946000161660928?s=19). Aside from suggesting wide-ranging disenchantment with politics, this seems to weaken Zelens'kyy's impressive mandate and his potential future ability to invoke the will of the people who voted for his party so massively.The
The following day, it was reported that turnout had been the lowest in Ukraine's history.
The following day, it was reported that turnout had been the lowest in Ukraine's history.
The Opposition Platform was quick to claim "massive falsifications" were present (even before the official results were announced). Indeed, the elections had been marked by a huge number of manipulation attempts (https://twitter.com/HromadskeRadio/status/1153247277823209472?s=19).
On the other hand, it was reassuring to note that decisive action on the authorities' part seemed to be occurring against falsification attempts. Thus, it was reported that as of 18:00 on Sunday 44 criminal procedures were going on in connection with voting irregularities.
The exit poll results soon led commentators to speculate that "Servant of the People" would coalesce with the newly-formed "Voice" party. However, it later became clear that "Servant of the People" would receive enough seats to rule without resorting to a coalition: https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1153239471317540864?s=19.
An echo of the uneven voting results of the presidential elections earlier this year was felt as former president Poroshenko's party "European Solidarity" narrowly beat "Servant of the People" in votes from abroad.
6) Restaffing of embassies
Unsurprisingly in light of his fundamental aim to replace old faces with new ones and generally break with the previous administration's legacy (seen recently in his idea to cancel the Independence Day parade), President Zelens'kyy has decided to replace Ukraine's ambassadors to twelve countries with a mix of diplomats and newcomers to the field.
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