Disclaimer
I am not any kind of expert. This is simply a series where I offer my subjective observations and evaluations based on a personal reading of the news.
Unprecedented single-party majority in the Rada
Unprecedented single-party majority in the Rada
This fortnight was off to a monumental start owing to the directly preceding parliamentary elections which had ensured an unprecedented single-party majority for President Zelens'kyy's "Servant of the People" party. Many were apprehensive, some even fearing an autocratic turn in the new government's development. More optimistically if just as distrustfully, Vitaliy Portnikov was announcing that the Ukrainian people's traits of poverty, absence of a "statist instinct" and rebellious inclination as well as dependence on foreign financial aid would prevent the establishment of an authoritarian system.
New faces in Parliament
Later, the media continued to teem with discussions of how the face of the Rada had changed through the elections. One development was an increase in certain kinds of diversity, as the proportion of women MPs is due to rise to nearly 20% and the country gains its first black member of Parliament.
While many celebrated the departure of old, unpopular lawmakers, it seems clear that Servant of the People considered that its reliance on novices could bring about difficulties, as President Zelens'kyy opted to send all his party's parliamentary elects to an arduous week-long "boot camp" with courses that go on for thirteen hours a day.
Seizure of Russian ship in Ukrainian port
Not long after, Ukrainian security service SBU, as well as the "military prosecutors' office", detained a Russian tanker which had participated in the famous Kerch Strait incident. Ukraine soon released the Russian crew, however, which has been interpreted as a manoevre to "seize the moral high ground" as regards the still ongoing negotiations about the 24 Ukrainian crew members still imprisoned in Russia after their capture in the Kerch Strait (see the New York Times article cited below under "Miscellaneous").
Planned emancipation of economy from government
Now that he is in power, the new President seems to want to implement an array of economic reforms that the country had previously just never got around to. The good news is that these could boost Ukraine's GDP by 0,5%-3% per year. However, time is of the essence as apparently the project will be difficult to execute if they fail to do so within the year.
Vakarchuk proposes law regulating "coexistence" with Russia
Svyatoslav Vakarchuk came forward with the not unprecedented suggestion for a law to clarify how private Ukrainian citizens should interact with the Russian Federation. By way of example, he lamented the uncertainty as to whether performers should tour in Russia or not.
To me, this seems like a very limited concern to begin with, and I am sceptical towards such plans to extend state authority. Especially so soon after elections, preoccupying oneself with relatively trivial matters moreover just looks bad. This problem may seem important to Vakarchuk, given his career as a singer, but it does not do for a politician to let his personal history defibe his politics to such an extent.
New Russian-language worldwide TV channel to be launched by Ukrainian state
Further confirming both Zelens'kyy's and Servant of the People's strong interest in television and an apparent ambition of Ukraine's new leaders across parties (see previous point on Vakarchuk) to foment the country's soft power, Ukraine now plans to kickstart a government-run international television channel. Thus reported National Post. The project's goal, of course, is a counter-offensive against Russian propaganda both in Ukraine (and Eastern Ukraine in particular) and in Russia.
The idea is interesting because it has definite potential to be effective. Russian television is famously central to V. V. Putin's control over his nation. On the other hand, this move could spark scalding tensions for precisely that reason. If Russia's head of state feels a threat to his power, there is no telling what he will do. I suppose a military escalation is not improbable. Let's hope Zelens'kyy has a contingency plan for that in store; after all, failure to end the war in the east is one of the reasons which a credible source, Viktor Bobyrenko, predicts for the president's downfall, according to another article in the National Post.
Still, one could argue that, militarily disadvantaged as it remains, Ukraine could do with an effective lever to exert pressure on the Russian regime.
Ukraine requests to buy more Javelins
As I write this, the American ambassador to Ukraine has confirmed to Radio Free Europe that Ukraine is seeking to buy more Javelin missiles from the USA. As the article further notes, the missiles are intended for use "in the event of a large-scale escalation". This made sense to me in light of this National Interest article which explains that the Javelins could hardly find practical application in the current situation anyway, owing to a scarcity of "heavy armor" among the separatist forces.
I'm unsure what to make of this news. In any case, there is probably a strong reason for it, since the request was made under a president who cancelled a popular military parade to save money and whose policy aims include a refuction of the state deficit (see the article linked in the point on economic reforms above). The most alarmist interpretation is that the Ukrainian government is anticipating a major escalation, perhaps even as a result of its own measures, like the above-mentioned television channel plan, but it seems highly unlikely that Zelens'kyy and his crew would knowingly risk unleashing such a development. If this is a sign that escalation is in the air, it will probably come solely on Russia's initiative.
On the other hand, I suppose an opposite view can be taken. Perhaps swayed by Putin's repeated underhanded blows at him, such as promising Russian citizenship to Eastern Ukrainians, Zelens'kyy could have decided that preemptive assertiveness was the way to go in dealing with this opponent. If he judges Putin liable actually to crank upthe heat in Donbas to the point where Javelins would be applicable, it may not be unreasonable to want to make Russia put that option out of its mind for good before proceeding with attempts to settle the military situation.
A third explanation is the one insinuated in the RFE article itself, namely that the goal is to send a message by sealing an arms sales contract optically in conjunction with Zelens'kyy 's imminent meeting with Donald Trump. To be honest, this sounds like the most probable explanation, since I don't see why either Ukraine or Russia would desire a military escalation anytime soon.
I'm unsure what to make of this news. In any case, there is probably a strong reason for it, since the request was made under a president who cancelled a popular military parade to save money and whose policy aims include a refuction of the state deficit (see the article linked in the point on economic reforms above). The most alarmist interpretation is that the Ukrainian government is anticipating a major escalation, perhaps even as a result of its own measures, like the above-mentioned television channel plan, but it seems highly unlikely that Zelens'kyy and his crew would knowingly risk unleashing such a development. If this is a sign that escalation is in the air, it will probably come solely on Russia's initiative.
On the other hand, I suppose an opposite view can be taken. Perhaps swayed by Putin's repeated underhanded blows at him, such as promising Russian citizenship to Eastern Ukrainians, Zelens'kyy could have decided that preemptive assertiveness was the way to go in dealing with this opponent. If he judges Putin liable actually to crank upthe heat in Donbas to the point where Javelins would be applicable, it may not be unreasonable to want to make Russia put that option out of its mind for good before proceeding with attempts to settle the military situation.
A third explanation is the one insinuated in the RFE article itself, namely that the goal is to send a message by sealing an arms sales contract optically in conjunction with Zelens'kyy 's imminent meeting with Donald Trump. To be honest, this sounds like the most probable explanation, since I don't see why either Ukraine or Russia would desire a military escalation anytime soon.
Miscellaneous
Apparently Zelens'kyy's name clinched the second place by number of mentions in Russian media, tailing, of course, V. V. Putin. This was reported by Interfax, as cited in The New York Times.
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